DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z TUE 24/12 - 06Z WED 25/12 2002
ISSUED: 23/12 20:19Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FRANCE, SPAIN AND PORTUGAL...AND SOUTHERN ITALY

SYNOPSIS

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER WESTERN EUROPE. A COMPLEX ATLANTIC LOW IS PRESENT BETWEEN IRELAND AND ICELAND. SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE MOVING EASTWARD. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE RISE TO SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE AIR-MASS IS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THERE. ACROSS THE WESTERN-MEDITERRENEAN THE AIR-MASS IN ALSO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE, BUT FORCING SEEMS TO BE TOO WEAK TO AID IN THE INITIATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN ITALY WHERE RISING MOTION MAY CAUSE ENOUGH DESTABILISATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A GENERALLY STRATIFORM PRECIPTITATION SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE THE AIR-MASS IS TOO STABLE TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

DISCUSSION

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